US fall intake hit by visa chaos: Consultants warn of 70–80% drop in Indian students

With the fall semester about to begin in under two weeks, American universities are bracing for a steep drop in Indian student arrivals. Education consultants in Hyderabad estimate up to a 70% decline, citing a freeze in US visa appointment slots and a spike in rejection rates as the key reasons.

“By this time usually, most students are done with their visa interviews and are preparing to fly. This year, we're still refreshing the portal every day hoping for a slot to open. It's the worst in years,” Sanjeev Rai of Hyderabad Overseas Consultant, told TOI's Amisha Rajani.

While the US State Department earlier indicated that student visa appointments would be released in phases, consultants say the process remains inconsistent and lacks transparency. With many students unable to secure interview slots or receive confirmation after booking, withdrawals are rising and alternative destinations like Germany are gaining attention.

“Even when a few slots opened midweek, those who managed to book haven't received confirmation.” He suggested the US authorities might be testing their systems, adding, “There's no logical reason to open a handful of slots without confirming bookings,” Ankit Jain from Window Overseas Education Consultancy noted.

Several consultancies report a sharp increase in panic calls from students and parents alike. “If slots aren't released in the next few days, thousands of dreams will be shattered. We are seeing about an 80% drop. We're getting panic calls every day,” said Arvind Manduva of I20 Fever.

Adding to the uncertainty is a high rate of rejections under Section 214B of the US Immigration and Nationality Act. This clause is typically used when applicants are unable to demonstrate strong ties to India and prove their intent to return after studies. “Many students who usually would have had smooth approvals are being turned away. Their social media was also clean. The only reason that everyone seems to be receiving is 214B,” said Jain.

India sent over 3.3 lakh students to the US last year, surpassing China for the first time. But this year, even those who began visa processes early are being turned down. “Many students who have been preparing for months are seeing their dream crash. However, what the US authorities are doing is not new. The rules, vetting, and scrutiny were in place for years; it is just effectively implemented now. This will filter out applicants,” said Ravi Lothumalla from US Admission, an immigration consulting firm based in Dallas.

Meanwhile, the US Consulate General in Hyderabad confirmed that visa slots have resumed. “We're working to fully vet visa applicants to ensure they do not intend to harm America or our interests, and that they credibly establish their eligibility for the visa sought, including that they intend to engage in activities consistent with the terms of their admission. We encourage applicants to apply as early as they can and to anticipate additional processing time for these visa categories,” said a spokesperson from the US Consulate General in Hyderabad.