Mark Carney's Win In Canada: A Reset With India & A Reimagined Foreign Policy

It was a double whammy for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who not only suffered the most stunning setback of his political career by losing his seat after 21 years, but also watched his party squander a commanding 24-point lead over the Liberals. In a dramatic turnaround, Liberal leader Mark Carney emerged as the party’s saviour, orchestrating a near-miraculous resurrection and revitalisation of a political force once believed to be in terminal decline.

The political debacle deepened as Jagmeet Singh — once the kingmaker in the Trudeau government and leader of the progressive New Democratic Party — suffered a humiliating defeat, losing his seat in the national vote. This stunning reversal also stripped the NDP of its national party status, widely seen as a resounding rebuke from the Sikh community to Singh’s perceived pro-Khalistani stance, which had severely strained Indo-Canada relations.

In a related development, the Liberals staged an unexpected comeback, falling just three seats short of the majority mark of 172 but securing a robust 43.4% of the popular vote. The Conservatives, despite their aggressive campaign, were reduced to 144 seats with 41.4% vote share. Jagmeet’s NDP languished with just 7 seats, while the Bloc Québécois held firm with 23 seats and 6.4% of the vote.

The polls are now closed.
 
For 37 days, in every corner of this country, our team worked to build a stronger Canada.
 
Thank you to everyone who put so much into this campaign. pic.twitter.com/1Xj0R1B094

— Mark Carney (@MarkJCarney) April 29, 2025

Mark Carney’s ascension to Canada’s top political office marks a pivotal moment not just in the country’s domestic politics but also on the international stage—particularly with India. After a troubled phase of frosty diplomatic winds under Justin Trudeau’s tenure, Ottawa now signals a decisive shift. Carney, a polished technocrat with global gravitas and a temperament markedly different from Trudeau’s, has underlined his intent to recalibrate ties with New Delhi.

In his very first public remarks, Carney struck a conciliatory and strategic tone: “It’s an incredibly important relationship, the Canada-India relationship, on many levels—on the personal level, with Canadians having deep personal ties, economically, strategically.” This was no generic diplomatic platitude—it was a veiled repudiation of the past and a pointer to the future.

Khalistanis’ Defeat Paves Way for India-Canada Reset

The defeat of Khalistani elements in Canada marks a crucial turning point for Indo-Canadian relations, long strained under the Trudeau regime due to perceived tolerance of separatist rhetoric. For India, it removes a major irritant that blocked diplomatic and trade progress, offering a strategic opening to rebuild trust. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s stated intent to restore ties gains credibility with the marginalisation of extremist voices. It reassures New Delhi that Canada no longer views pro-Khalistan activism as protected dissent but as a disruptive force endangering bilateral ties.

For Canada, this shift restores international credibility and positions it for a meaningful economic engagement with India, particularly in trade, energy, education, and technology. The side-lining of radicals also benefits the broader Sikh diaspora, which has often been unfairly associated with separatism despite being largely moderate and integrationist. Domestically, Canada can now focus on unifying communities rather than pandering to divisive factions. The defeat of these elements sends a clear message: democracy does not tolerate threats to sovereignty—at home or abroad. If sustained, this reset could transform India and Canada from diplomatic adversaries into strategic partners, unlocking the full potential of their economic, cultural, and geopolitical ties. The moment is ripe for both nations to seize.

Undoing the Trudeau Damage

Under Trudeau, Canada’s relations with India deteriorated sharply. His administration’s perceived leniency toward pro-Khalistan elements, public comments implicating India in the Nijjar killing, and an evident lack of strategic depth poisoned bilateral goodwill. What should have been a robust, multicultural partnership between two vibrant democracies got mired in suspicion and strategic inertia.

Carney inherits this baggage but brings with him a banker’s clarity and a diplomat’s finesse. His global credibility—shaped by tenures at the Bank of England and Bank of Canada—lends weight to his outreach. He is acutely aware that Canada’s Indian diaspora, now over 1.8 million strong, is a bridge to South Asia’s most dynamic economy, not a wedge. His early gestures suggest that he may decouple diaspora politics from foreign policy—a move long overdue.

Nationalism as the Battle Cry: Carney’s Calculated Defiance of Trumpism

Carney’s election campaign morphed into a high-stakes referendum on national identity, with nationalism wielded not as a relic of the past but as a rallying cry against foreign subservience. Mark Carney, with unflinching resolve, cast himself as the vigilant sentinel of Canadian sovereignty—adamantly refusing to let Donald Trump’s looming influence recast Canada as the metaphorical "51st state" of the United States. His campaign became a clarion call to resist the creeping shadow of Trumpian politics, and in doing so, he galvanized a silent electorate bristling with patriotic pride.

In a move as politically audacious as it was strategic, Carney struck a crippling blow to the Conservatives by dismantling their most enduring line of attack. The derisive label of the Liberals as the “Carbon Tax Party”—long a rallying cry for right-wing rhetoric—was emphatically discarded under Carney’s premiership. With a stroke of political clarity, he declared the epithet obsolete, rendering it null and void. In doing so, he not only eviscerated a core talking point of his opponents but also recast the Liberal image with renewed vigour, sophistication, and policy dexterity.

Carney's ascent was not merely electoral—it was ideological. He reframed the narrative, seized control of the discourse, and emerged as the architect of a new political moment where Canadian pride was non-negotiable, and subservience was not an option.

CEPA Back in Play?

One of the biggest casualties of the Trudeau-Modi chill was the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which was shelved amid political tensions. Under Carney, there's renewed optimism that the talks may resume. He understands that Canada needs diversified trade partnerships, and India, with its expanding middle class and digital economy, is a natural partner.

Reviving CEPA won’t be easy—it requires trust, political will, and pragmatism. But Carney's technocratic background equips him to approach such negotiations devoid of populist theatrics. More importantly, Modi’s administration, fresh off another electoral endorsement, may be more willing to engage a leader who refrains from lecturing on domestic Indian affairs.

I have a real plan to build Canada Strong. pic.twitter.com/1cSXLSpAq3

— Mark Carney (@MarkJCarney) April 22, 2025

Immigration and Visas: A New Equation?

Carney's stance on immigration will also be closely watched. As a Liberal, he inherits a pro-immigration platform, but he brings a sharper focus on economic utility. Canada is facing acute labour shortages in healthcare, IT, and construction. India, with its vast talent pool, could be a reliable source—if visa bottlenecks are eased.

Unlike Trudeau’s over-politicised immigration outreach, Carney may pivot toward a skills-based system that privileges merit over diaspora appeasement. This could help restore confidence among Indian students, tech workers, and entrepreneurs who felt stung by recent policy unpredictability.

Anti-Trump Campaign: The X-Factor

Carney’s campaign cleverly tapped into a broader global fatigue with populism. He framed the Liberals as a firewall against a Trump-style hard-right surge in Canada. This narrative worked well in urban centres, among youth, minorities, and centrists—audiences wary of the divisive rhetoric spreading across the West.

By drawing indirect contrasts with Trump and his Canadian proxies, Carney positioned himself as the rational alternative in the form of a strong leader. His credibility as a renowned international economist and his dispassionate, solutions-first approach helped him cut through the noise. This anti-populist narrative also found resonance with Indian-origin voters, who value stability and moderation over performative politics.

Strategic Realignment: India as a Counterweight to China

For Carney, foreign policy will not just be about mending ties; it will be about realigning Canada’s strategic posture. India figures prominently in this calculus. In an era where China’s assertiveness has rattled the West, India is increasingly seen as a necessary counterweight. Carney’s emphasis on economic and strategic ties with New Delhi reflects this pivot.

Canada, with its G7 seat and abundant natural resources, can be a vital energy and technology partner for India. In return, India offers market access and geopolitical leverage. Expect Carney to move swiftly to place India on the A-list of Ottawa’s foreign policy matrix—potentially elevating the relationship to a more structured, institutionalised format.

Domestic Political Landscape: A Delicate Balancing Act

Despite the mandate, Carney will confront several problems which will be inherited by him. Domestically, he faces a fractured parliament, rising inflation, housing crises, and an increasingly polarised electorate. His ability to deliver on foreign policy resets depends on the political capital he can preserve at home.

Moreover, his recalibration with India could invite backlash from segments of the Liberal base that flirted with identity politics under Trudeau. Carney will need to walk a tightrope—restoring pragmatism without alienating traditional Liberal constituencies.

What India Should Watch For

New Delhi would do well to approach the Carney era with cautious optimism. A less combative, more cooperative Canadian leadership opens new avenues—particularly in education, energy, technology, and green partnerships. But India will expect clear red lines: no tolerance for pro-Khalistan activism masquerading as free speech, and no unsolicited commentary on its internal affairs.

India will also test Carney's consistency. Will his strategic overtures survive a political storm at home? Will his commitment to CEPA and trade facilitation withstand domestic protectionist pressures? These questions will determine how fast and how far the relationship can progress.

A New Chapter, If Not a New Book

Mark Carney is not a populist or a career politician. He is a cerebral, globally seasoned technocrat stepping into a volatile arena. His signals so far indicate a conscious pivot toward stability, strategic clarity, and economic cooperation. With India, this means a chance to restore a relationship derailed by political posturing and mutual suspicion.

The opportunity is real—but fragile. If Carney delivers on his early rhetoric, and Modi reciprocates with calibrated engagement, the India-Canada reset could be one of the more consequential diplomatic turnarounds in the current global landscape.

In essence, Carney’s rise may not just mark a political transition in Ottawa—but also the rebirth of a relationship that had once promised much and delivered little.

(Writer is strategic affairs columnist and senior political analyst)